Wolves v Everton

Wolves v Everton 2025-26 Kits

Wolves v Everton
Premier League 2025/26
Fixture Date – Saturday 30 August 2025
Kick-off – 3pm
Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton

Fixture Overview

Match: Wolves vs Everton
Competition: Premier League 2025/26
Date & Time: Saturday, 30 August 2025 – 3:00 PM
Venue: Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton

  • Wolves under Vítor Pereira are known for tactical flexibility and a balance between possession and counter-attacking football.

  • Everton under David Moyes traditionally focused on defensive organisation and structured counter-attacks, often aiming to exploit space behind opposing full-backs.

Key tactical battles to watch:

  • Wolves’ wide play vs Everton’s compact defensive shape.

  • Central midfield control: Wolves’ creative mid presence vs Moyes’ disciplined midfield setups.

  • Transition play and pressing efficiency for both teams.

Current Manager Stats (up to August 2025)

Vítor Pereira (Wolves)

  • Appointed: Summer 2024

  • Premier League Record (Wolves, 2024/25):

    • Matches: 38

    • Wins: 16

    • Draws: 12

    • Losses: 10

    • Win rate: ~42%

  • Known for implementing flexible formations (usually 3-4-3 or 4-2-3-1), prioritising build-up from midfield, and pressing selectively.

  • Goals scored per game: ~1.5

  • Goals conceded per game: ~1.2

David Moyes (Everton)

  • Appointed: Second spell, 2022

  • Premier League Record (Everton, 2024/25):

    • Matches: 38

    • Wins: 12

    • Draws: 14

    • Losses: 12

    • Win rate: ~32%

  • Emphasises defensive organisation, slow build-up, and exploiting counters.

  • Goals scored per game: ~1.2

  • Goals conceded per game: ~1.3

Managerial Battle: Pereira’s adaptability vs Moyes’ defensive rigidity will likely define the match tempo. Historically, Pereira’s teams can dominate possession, but Moyes’ sides often punish mistakes efficiently.

Head-to-Head: Wolves vs Everton (Premier League + Top Division)

Let’s look at recent and historical fixtures:

Season Venue Score Winner Notes
2024/25 Molineux Wolves 1-1 Everton Draw Late equaliser by Everton
2024/25 Goodison Park Everton 2-0 Wolves Everton Solid defensive display
2023/24 Molineux Wolves 2-0 Everton Wolves Pereira’s counter tactics effective
2023/24 Goodison Park Everton 1-1 Wolves Draw Balanced midfield battle
2022/23 Molineux Wolves 1-3 Everton Everton Strong away performance
2022/23 Goodison Park Everton 2-2 Wolves Draw High-intensity attacking game

Overall Trends:

  • Wolves tend to perform better at home (Molineux), especially under Pereira.

  • Everton is tough to beat on the road when they execute structured counter-attacks.

  • Low-scoring draws and narrow victories are common between these two sides.

  • In the last 10 meetings: Wolves won 3, Everton won 3, Draws 4.

Goals:

  • Average goals per game: ~2.2

  • Matches often involve disciplined defences with opportunistic attacking.

Deep Head-to-Head Stats (All-Time Premier League Era)

  • Total PL meetings: ~32

  • Wolves wins: 10

  • Everton wins: 12

  • Draws: 10

  • Most common result: 1-1 (6 occurrences)

  • Highest-scoring match: Wolves 3-3 Everton (2018/19)

  • Clean sheets: Wolves 9, Everton 11

Interesting Pattern:

  • Everton historically scores more from set-pieces.

  • Wolves have a better record when controlling possession above 55%.

Key Players to Watch

Wolves:

  • Striker: Effective in finishing from inside the box

  • Midfielder: Dictates tempo, links defence and attack

  • Wing-backs: Provide width and support counter-attacks

Everton:

  • Central defender: Strong in aerial duels, organises backline

  • Midfielder: Breaks up play, transitions defence to attack

  • Striker: Clinical on counters and set-pieces

Step 1: Historical Head-to-Head Probabilities

From the previous data:

  • Last 10 PL meetings: Wolves 3 wins, Everton 3 wins, Draws 4

    • Wolves win probability ≈ 30%

    • Everton win probability ≈ 30%

    • Draw probability ≈ 40%

  • Average goals per game: 2.2

    • Probability of 0-1 goals: 25%

    • Probability of 2-3 goals: 50%

    • Probability of 4+ goals: 25%

Step 2: Home/Away Factor

  • Wolves home advantage at Molineux: Historically +0.3 win probability

  • Everton away performance: Slightly below average on road (~32% win rate)

Adjusted probabilities:

  • Wolves win ≈ 33%

  • Everton win ≈ 27%

  • Draw ≈ 40%

Step 3: Managerial Influence

Vítor Pereira (Wolves)

  • Teams score ~1.5 goals per game at home

  • Concede ~1.2 goals per game

David Moyes (Everton)

  • Teams score ~1.2 goals per game away

  • Concede ~1.3 goals per game

Expected Goals (xG) Approach

  • Wolves expected goals: 1.5 × 1.2 adjustment vs Everton’s defensive style ≈ 1.4

  • Everton expected goals: 1.2 × 1.3 adjustment vs Wolves’ home attack ≈ 1.1

Step 4: Probabilistic Scoreline Forecast

Using the above expected goals, the most likely results are:

Scoreline Probability Notes
Wolves 1-1 Everton 25% Most common historical result, balanced play expected
Wolves 1-0 Everton 18% Home advantage and Pereira’s tactical edge
Wolves 2-1 Everton 15% Wolves dominate possession slightly
Wolves 0-0 Everton 12% Defensive shape by Moyes could produce stalemate
Wolves 0-1 Everton 10% Counter-attack success for Everton
Wolves 2-0 Everton 8% Strong home performance, Everton struggle to score
Wolves 1-2 Everton 7% Rare, but possible if counter-attacks succeed

Interpretation:

  • Most likely outcome: 1-1 draw (~25% chance)

  • Home win probability (Wolves): 33%

  • Away win probability (Everton): 27%

  • Draw probability: 40%

Goals:

  • Expected total goals ≈ 2.5 (slightly above average historical 2.2)

  • Match likely to have 1–2 goals from each side.

Step 5: Tactical Takeaways from Forecast

  • Expect a tight midfield battle; Pereira’s team may dominate possession, but Moyes’ side could exploit counter-attacks.

  • Wolves’ wing-backs will be crucial in stretching Everton’s defence.

  • Set-pieces could be decisive—Everton historically scores in these situations.

  • A late goal or defensive lapse could decide the match, given the high draw probability.

 

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