Premier League Final Day: Who Gets Europe and Who Stays Up?

The Premier League season comes to a dramatic close on Sunday with Champions League qualification, European places and relegation all still to be decided. Here’s every scenario explained as clubs across the top-flight prepare for a decisive final day.

While Arsenal won their first Premier League title in 22 years on Tuesday night, this Sunday will determine the remaining qualification spots for European places and the final relegation spot.

At the top of the table, the Gunners, Manchester City and rivals Manchester United have confirmed their spots in next season’s UEFA Champions League and are all guaranteed to finish the campaign in the top three.

Aston Villa will be joining the trio in Europe’s elite competition due to not just their league position but because of their dominant victory in the UEFA Europa League of German side Freiburg.

Unai Emery’s side’s final league position will determine whether one or two more English clubs earn a Champions League spot on the final day.

Towards the bottom, Wolverhampton Wanderers and Burnley have already had relegation to the Championship confirmed, with them winning just seven games this season combined. They will be joined by either Tottenham Hotspur or West Ham United.

Here, we will take a look at all of the possibilities ahead of the most exciting weekend of the season.

How does Champions League qualification work?

This isn’t the easiest thing to explain, so stick with us! It has however, been made slightly simpler after Villa lifted the Europa League.

Because England has won one of two Elite Performance Spots (EPS) for next season’s Champions League, five Premier League clubs will feature in the competition, up from four. Like England, Spain have also guaranteed five clubs.

We already know that Arsenal, City, United and Villa are four of those.

But because of Villa’s win in Istanbul, there is a scenario in which six English clubs qualify for the Champions League next term.

For that to happen, Villa would need to finish fifth.

Currently, they are fourth and three points clear of fifth-placed Liverpool. That means Liverpool would need to beat Brentford and hope Villa lose at City for them to overtake Emery’s side.

Fans of Bournemouth and Brighton will also hope this happens. If it does, it means one of them would join Liverpool and be a sixth English team in the Champions League.

The Cherries only need a point away at the City Ground to guarantee a top-six finish.

Meanwhile, the Seagulls would need to beat Manchester United and for Bournemouth to lose to finish sixth.

Liverpool only need a point to guarantee a top-five finish if Villa hold on to fourth. But if they lose at home to the Bees, they would only not finish fifth if Bournemouth won at Forest, and the Cherries overturned a six-goal deficit in goal difference.

Who qualifies for the Europa League?

Bournemouth have already guaranteed at least a top-seven finish, meaning they will either qualify for the Champions League or Europa League.

At present, sixth and seventh will qualify for Uefa’s second-tier competition, as Manchester City won the FA Cup and England won an EPS.

If English clubs get six Champions League spots, they will lose a Europa League spot in exchange. That would mean only seventh place would qualify for the Europa League.

If Bournemouth overtake Liverpool in the table and English clubs do not have six Champions League teams, the Reds would be one of two teams in the Europa League next season.

Brighton are currently seventh and have a one-point advantage over Chelsea and Brentford, who are directly below them.

A win for the Seagulls would guarantee them Europa League football at least.

If Brighton fail to win and Chelsea win at Sunderland, the Blues would overtake Brighton.

Chelsea can also overtake Brighton with a draw, if Brighton were to lose by two goals and Brentford fail to win at Anfield.

Sunderland themselves could finish in the top seven. For that to happen, they would need Brighton to lose and Brentford to drop points whilst also beating Chelsea at the Stadium of Light.

What about Conference League qualification?

It is a similar story in qualification for the one place available for the play-off qualifying round of next season’s Conference League.

Chelsea are in eighth and currently possess that available spot. Eighth place qualifies for the Conference League due to City winning the EFL Cup and the EPS to an English club.

Chelsea will secure European football in at least the Conference League with a win over Sunderland.

Brentford will secure a top-eight finish if they better Chelsea’s result.

Sunderland in 10th would leapfrog both if they beat Chelsea and Brentford drop points.

What about relegation?

Joining Wolves and Burnley in the Championship next season will be one of Spurs or West Ham.

Tottenham in 17th do have a significant advantage going into the final day of the season. They are two points clear of their London rivals and are 12 goals better in terms of goal difference.

While mathematically not guaranteed, a draw for Spurs at home to Everton all but confirms their stay in the Premier League.

The only scenario in which this would not happen is if Spurs draw and West Ham beat Leeds by 12 or more goals, a scoreline that has never happened in the 34-year history of the Premier League.

A win for Roberto de Zerbi’s side guarantees safety.

West Ham have to beat Leeds to stand any chance of survival. If they beat Leeds and Spurs lose to the Toffees, the Hammers will stay up.