Scotland’s World Cup knockout hopes collapse to just 5.26% after final group defeat

Scotland’s hopes of reaching the World Cup knockout stages have suffered a major setback, with Steve Clarke’s side now facing a near impossible route through after their final group-stage defeat and a series of unfavourable results elsewhere.

Scotland’s chances of reaching the last 32 have dropped from 42 per cent to just 5.26 per cent, according to Opta, after they finished their group campaign with only three points.

A place in the knockout stages would have been secured with four points, but the 3-0 defeat to Brazil left Scotland needing several results to go their way in the remaining groups.

The margin of defeat has also hurt their position, with Scotland’s goal difference now sitting at -3. Should teams finish level on points in the third-place standings, goal difference will be used as the deciding factor.

Scotland currently sit eighth among the 12 third-placed teams, leaving them clinging onto the qualification places with the final group matches still to be played.

Results elsewhere damage Scotland’s hopes

Scotland’s qualification position worsened after a number of key results went against them.

South Africa’s 1-0 win over South Korea saw them claim one of the top two spots in Group A, pushing South Korea into third place. The result was significant for Scotland as South Korea moved above them in the third-place rankings with a superior goal difference.

Ecuador then secured progression after beating Germany 2-1, finishing third in their group with four points.

Sweden also advanced from third place after drawing 1-1 with Japan, meaning another potential route for Scotland disappeared.

Following those results, Scotland’s chances dropped to 6.89 per cent before Paraguay’s draw with Australia reduced them further to 5.26 per cent.

What Scotland need to happen to qualify

Scotland now need at least four third-placed teams to finish with a worse record than them.

With points level, the deciding factor will be goal difference, meaning Scotland need teams below them to either fail to reach three points or finish with an inferior goal difference.

Four third-placed teams currently below Scotland have only played two matches, while two more teams are level on points with a game remaining.

The remaining fixtures Scotland will be watching closely are:

Friday

Group I: Senegal and Iraq must draw, or Iraq must win by no more than two goals.

Group H: Uruguay must lose to Spain.

Group G: Iran must lose to Egypt.

Saturday

Group L: Croatia must lose to Ghana by at least three goals.

Group K: DR Congo and Uzbekistan must draw, or Uzbekistan must win by no more than three goals.

Group J: Austria and Algeria are both on three points, with a draw enough to send both through. Scotland need Algeria to lose by two or more goals, or Austria to suffer a defeat by at least four goals.

Scotland’s fate is now out of their hands, with their World Cup knockout hopes depending on a number of results going their way across the remaining groups.