King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes: who will win Ascot showdown?

The King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes is one of the biggest headlines of the Flat season, with some of the sport’s greatest horses having etched their names into Ascot history.

This year’s renewal promises another fascinating contest, with French star Calandagan bidding to defend his crown after a brilliant victory 12 months ago.

Standing in his way are several leading contenders, including Japan’s Masquerade Ball, former winner Goliath and Aidan O’Brien’s Classic-winning pair Benvenuto Cellini and Minnie Hauk.

With a strong field set to line up at Ascot on Saturday, previous editions of the King George can offer some useful clues when searching for the winner.

Does age matter in the King George?

For many years, the King George was dominated by younger horses, with three and four-year-olds holding a clear advantage in the race.

Older runners struggled to make their mark, with Poet’s Word ending a long wait when he became the first horse aged five or older to win since Daylami in 1999.

Before that breakthrough, 45 horses aged five and above had failed to win the race, including several household names such as Highland Reel, Jack Hobbs, Cirrus Des Aigles, St Nicholas Abbey, Youmzain, Doyen, Falbrav, Nayef and fantastic Light.

However, recent renewals have changed the picture.

Enable became the first six-year-old winner since Swain in 1998, while Hukum later matched that achievement. In fact, five of the last six winners before the 2024 renewal were aged older than four.

That means horses such as Calandagan, Kalpana and Goliath would no longer be immediately ruled out purely because of their age.

One reason behind the shift is that fewer leading three-year-olds are now targeted at 1m4f contests, with many Classic contenders avoiding the distance or prioritising other targets.

Three-year-olds once held a 31-30 advantage over older horses before Doyen’s victory in 2004, but they now trail 44-31 in the overall standings.

Despite that, a high-class three-year-old remains a serious threat, particularly if they arrive with strong Class form. Benvenuto Cellini’s Irish Derby success gives him exactly the type of profile that has traditionally been respected in this race.

Calandagan bidding to join elite company

The reigning champion heads into the race as a leading contender and is a worthy favourite.

Calandagan was widely regarded as the best 1m4f performer in the world last season and returned to winning form in impressive fashion in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud, suggesting he is ready to deliver another big performance.

The biggest challenge facing the French raider is history.

Winning one King George is a remarkable achievement, but successfully defending the title is even harder. Only Dahlia, Swain and Enable have managed to win the race more than once.

Victory at Ascot would see Calandagan join a very select group of multiple winners.

Can the fillies and mares make history?

Female runners have enjoyed some success in recent years, but the King George remains a demanding challenge for fillies and mares.

Thirteen fillies or mares have contested the last 14 renewals, with their finishing positions reading:

1-4-1-3-7-1-0-1-3-6-7-2-2

However, the overall record highlights the difficulty of the task.

Danedream and Enable are the only female winners older than three since Time Charter landed the race in 1983, underlining just how difficult it is for mares to defeat the leading colts.

Some outstanding performers have fallen short in the past, including the legendary Oh So Sharp, and it usually taken an exceptional talent to beat the boys.

That said, both Kalpana and Minnie Hauk arrive with strong claims.

Kalpana finished second in last year’s race, while Minnie Hauk came close to winning the Prix de I’Arc de Triomphe before producing an encouraging comeback effort over an inadequate trip in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes.

Key King George trends

Several recent winners have shared similar profiles:

• Postponed and Goliath are the only recent winners who had not previously won at Group 1 level.
• Masquerade Ball would become the first winner since Duke Of Marmalade in 2008 to land the race without previous winning form over 1m4f.

Verdict

Calandagan is understandably difficult to oppose following his outstanding 2024 campaign and successful return at Saint-Cloud.

However, his price reflects the quality of the opposition and another victory would place him among the select few to win multiple King George titles.

A high-class four-year-old is always worth taking seriously in this race, and Minnie Hauk fits that profile perfectly after finishing runner-up in last year’s Arc.

The Aidan O’Brien-trained contender has the potential to provide the Ballydoyle handler with a fifth King George success, with three of his previous winners aged four.