Can Aidan O’Brien end 10-year King George drought at Ascot this weekend?

Aidan O’Brien heads into Saturday’s King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes with a strong hand, but the Ballydole trainer will be looking to overcome two unwanted trends as he bids to claim the famous Ascot prize for the first time in a decade.

O’Brien has won the King George four times during his illustrious career, but it has been nine years since Highland Reel led from start to finish to land the spoils in 2016.

The Irish trainer will arrive at Ascot hoping his current stable form can improve after a relatively quiet spell, while Irish Derby winner Benvenuto Cellini attempts to follow in the footsteps of stable legend Galileo by winning the King George after success at the Curragh.

Is Ballydoyle form a concern?

O’Brien’s runners have struggled to find their usual level in July so far, with the Ballydoyle team operating at a strike-rate of just nine per cent across Britain and Ireland.

The trainer has recorded five winners from 55 runners this month, which would represent his second-lowest July strike-rate since taking over as a trainer in 1993.

The only time O’Brien has endured a quieter July came during his first season in charge, when he recorded an eight per cent strike-rate.

One of the biggest disappointments came during Irish Oaks weekend at the Curragh, where Ballydoyle failed to produce a winner across the two-day meeting.

O’Brien sent out 22 runners across the ten races, with several contests featuring multiple representatives, but drawing a blank at such a major fixture was unusual for one of the sport’s dominant yards.

Despite the lack of winners, O’Brien has still enjoyed success at the highest level this month. He saddled Constitution River to victory in the Coral-Eclipse, while supplying the runner-up in the Falmouth Stakes.

However, his leading finishers in the Irish Oaks and July Cup could only manage fifth and seventh respectively.

Although five winners from 55 runners appears below O’Brien’s usual standards, there is still time for his stable to turn things around, with King George day followed by the start of Glorious Goodwood.

Goodwood has become a particularly successful meeting for Ballydoyle in recent seasons. O’Brien enjoyed his best festival there in 2024, when four of his seven runners won, before adding three winners from ten runners last year.

Across the last four editions of Glorious Goodwood, O’Brien has recorded nine winners from 27 runners, a significant improvement on the four winners from 61 runners between 2017 and 2022.

He is also expected to be strongly represented at the Sussex Downs, with Scandinavia currently heading the betting for the Goodwood Cup, Diamond Necklace favourite for the Nassau Stakes and Gstaad among the leading contenders for the Sussex Stakes.

Before then, O’Brien will be hoping Saturday’s King George can provide the perfect springboard.

O’Brien’s King George record

Despite his remarkable record in Flat racing, O’Brien has not won the King George since Highland Reel’s success in 2016.

His first victory in the race came with Galileo in 2001, when the future sire followed up wins in the Derby and Irish Derby by landing the Ascot showpiece in what proved to be the final start of his racing career.

O’Brien added further King George victories with Dylan Thomas in 2007 and Duke Of Marmalade in 2008, meaning all four of his winners were sent off favourite.

Since Highland Reel’s triumph, O’Brien has continued to have runners in the race every year, sending out 22 contenders between 2017 and 2025.

However, success has remained elusive, including defeats for several well-fancied horses.

Love finished third as the 13-8 favourite in 2021, while Auguste Rodin endured a disappointing run when finishing last of ten as the 9-4 favourite in 2023.

The following year, Auguste Rodin could only finish fifth when sent off the 7-4 favourite.

Can Benvenuto Cellini follow Galileo’s footsteps?

Benvenuto Cellini will attempt to become just the second three-year-old trained by O’Brien to win the King George after Galileo achieved the feat in 2001.

The colt arrives at Ascot after a decisive victory in the Irish Derby at the Curragh, a success which saw him cut from 8-1 to around 5-2 in the betting for Saturday’s contest.

However, history suggests three-year-olds face a difficult task when taking on older rivals in the King George.

Since 2000, only six of the 26 winners have been three-year-olds, accounting for just 23 per cent of successful runners. The most recent was Adayar in 2021.

O’Brien’s own record with three-year-olds in the race is limited, with Galileo remaining his only winner from that age group.

Over the last decade, he has saddled four three-year-olds in the King George. Rostropovich finished fifth in 2018 after chasing home Latrobe in the Irish Derby, while Norway and Anthony Van Dyck finished seventh and tenth respectively in 2019 after running in the Irish Classic.

The most recent Ballydoyle three-year-old to contest the race was Auguste Rodin in 2023.

Like Benvenuto Cellini, Auguste Rodin ended his juvenile campaign with victory in the Futurity Trophy before going on to contest both the Derby and Irish Derby.

Strong Ballydoyle representation expected

Final declarations will be confirmed on Thursday, but Benvenuto Cellini is currently expected to be joined by Minnie Hauk, Lambourn and Action.

The latter pair could be used to ensure a strong pace, with one or both potentially retained to set the race up for their stablemates.

Minnie Hauk could prove O’Brien’s biggest threat to ending his King George wait and is currently around 7-1 to provide him with a fifth success.

The filly finished behind Ombudsman in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes on her latest start, but that effort came on her first appearance at Ascot and produced a higher Racing Post Rating than either of her previous runs this season.

She is one of two females expected to line up, alongside five-year-old mare Kalpana.

Victory for either would make history, with no filly or mare winning the King George since Enable completed her hat-trick in 2020.

With a talented team heading to Ascot, O’Brien will be hoping Benvenuto Cellini can end a long wait for another King George triumph and provide another memorable chapter in Ballydoyle’s remarkable story.